Life At Chinese Base Camp

May 14, 2014

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7 Summits Recreation Dome
7 Summits Recreation Dome

 

watching movies in the dome
watching movies in the dome

 

Pool and ping pong in the dome
Pool and ping pong in the dome
Dinner dessert
Dinner dessert

 

Dinner dessert
Shower in CBC

Mike Fagin’s Weather Report

Night temperatures start off at – 13 F (-25C) early in the period then go up to -6 F  (-21 C) later

Short term summary Wednesday  May 14 to Sunday   May 18

If you look at the US Navy and UK model these keep the jet over region to very close thus summit winds 50 mph (80 km/hr.) and stronger at times. Of course we get some variation during the day of lower winds. However the  GFS continues with the jet stream briefly moving out of our region to bring reasonable summit winds for May 17.  The big difference between the models is GFS has the jet just far enough to our west and north thus reasonable winds by May 17 and May 18 . . Navy model has 50 to 70 mph (80 to 112 km/hr.) at  31, 680 feet (9600 meter) and these winds will at times mix down to our summit at times for winds up to 40 to 50 mph (64 to 80 km/hr.). I would lean towards these stronger winds but the Navy can be wrong at times. Given these extremes I will list GFS and Navy.  

Models are not indicating much in the way of summit clouds or precipitation through May 18 . However we have seen that they have been inaccurate.

 Wednesday May 14

US GFS model

Summit Winds up to 50 mph  ( 80 km/hr.) west to southwest .  

Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters)   up 40 (64 km/hr.) west to southwest .

Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)  up to 25 mph  ( 40 km/hr.) west to southwest

Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of   low  confidence 2.

 

Wednesday May 14

US NAVY  model

Summit Winds up to 60 mph  ( 96 km/hr.) west to southwest .  

Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters)   up 45 (72 km/hr.) west to southwest .

Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)  up to 30 mph  ( 48 km/hr.) west to southwest

Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of   low-medium  confidence 2.5.

 

Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 20% chance up to 0.20 inches (5 mm).  

Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low-medium confidence rating of 2.5

Few if any summit clouds

A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is  equal to about  1 inch of snow

***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Thursday  May 15

US GFS model

Summit Winds up to 40 mph  ( 64 km/hr.) west to southwest .  

Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters)   up 30 (48 km/hr.) west to southwest .

Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)  up to 30 mph  ( 48 km/hr.) west to southwest

Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of   low  confidence 2.

 

Thursday May 15

US NAVY  model

Summit Winds up to 50 mph  ( 80 km/hr.) west to southwest .  

Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters)   up 45 (72 km/hr.) west to southwest .

Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)  up to 30 mph  ( 48 km/hr.) west to southwest

Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of   low-medium  confidence 2.5.

 

Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 20% chance up to 0.20 inches (5 mm).  

Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low-medium confidence rating of 2.5

Few if any summit clouds

A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is  equal to about  1 inch of snow

***************************************************************************************************************************************************

Friday  May 16

US GFS model

Summit Winds up to 40 mph  ( 64 km/hr.) west to northwest .  

Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters)   up 35 (56 km/hr.) west to northwest .

Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)  up to 30 mph  ( 48 km/hr.) west to northwest

Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of   low  confidence 2.

 

Friday  May 16

US NAVY  model

Summit Winds up to 50 mph  ( 80 km/hr.) west to northwest .  Stronger gusts at time

Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters)   up 45 (72 km/hr.) west to northwest .  Camps that are not protected from winds can have higher gusts

Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)  up to 30 mph  ( 48 km/hr.) west to northwest

Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of   low-medium  confidence 2.5.

 

Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 20% chance up to 0.20 inches (5 mm).  

Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low-medium confidence rating of 2.5

Few if any summit clouds

A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is  equal to about  1 inch of snow

****************************************************************************************************************************************************

Saturday  May 17

US GFS model

Summit Winds up to 20 mph  ( 32 km/hr.) west to northwest .  

Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters)   up 20 (32 km/hr.) west to northwest,

Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)  up to 10 mph  ( 16 km/hr.) west to southwest

Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of   low  confidence 2.

 

Saturday  May 17

US NAVY  model

Summit Winds up to 50 mph  ( 80 km/hr.) west to southwest .  

Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters)   up 40 (64 km/hr.) west to southwest . Camps that are not protected from winds can have higher gusts

Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)  up to 30 mph  ( 48 km/hr.) west to southwest

Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of   low-medium  confidence 2.5.

 

Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 20% chance up to 0.20 inches (5 mm).  

Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low confidence rating of 2

Few if any summit clouds

A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is  equal to about  1 inch of snow

***********************************************************************************************************************************************************

Sunday  May 18

US GFS model

Summit Winds up to 30 mph  ( 48 km/hr.) west to northwest .  

Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters)   up 25 (40 km/hr.) west to northwest ,

Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)  up to 20 mph  ( 32 km/hr.) west to northwest

Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of   low  confidence 2.

 

Sunday  May 18

US NAVY  model

Summit Winds up to 60 mph  ( 96 km/hr.) west to northwest .

 Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters)   up 40 (64 km/hr.) west to northwest . Camps that are not protected from winds can have higher gusts

Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)  up to 30 mph  ( 48 km/hr.) west to northwest

Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of   low-medium  confidence 2.5.

 

Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 20% chance up to 0.20 inches (5 mm).  

Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low confidence rating of 1.5

Few summit clouds

A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is  equal to about  1 inch of snow

 

Extended Outlook Monday May 19 to Tuesday  May 22

Summary:  The Navy model continues with the  jet real close and the GFS starts to show a minor increase in winds during this period. Models show some clouds and chance of light precipitation but not seeing a big organized system

Monday   May 19

Summit Winds up  to 40 mph  (64 km/hr.) west to southwest GFS slightly lower

Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters)   up 30 mph  (48 km/hr.) west to southwest .

Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)  up to 30 mph  (48 km/hr.) west to southwest

Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of   medium  confidence  3

Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 40% chance up to 0.40 inches (10 mm).    

Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low- medium confidence rating of 2.5

Some summit clouds as I think no precipitation for the summit

A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is  equal to about  1 inch of snow

Tuesday   May 20

Summit Winds up  to 50 mph  (80 km/hr.) west to southwest GFS slightly lower

Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters)   up 40 mph  (64 km/hr.) west to southwest .

Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters)  up to 30 mph  (48 km/hr.) west to southwest

Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of   medium  confidence  3

Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 40% chance up to 0.40 inches (10 mm).    

Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low- medium confidence rating of 2.5

Some summit clouds as I think no precipitation for the summit

A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is  equal to about  1 inch of snow

 

 

Monsoon/Bay of Bengal storms

. At this point we are not seeing any signs of the start. Also, not seeing any signs of a big storm

 

Best Window

The extended  forecasts do show  some reasonable winds in the May 26, May 27 period. Of course this is in the extended so hard to have a lot of confidence

West Coast Weather, LLC

These forecast is based on computer generated weather data generated from government agencies that West Coast Weather, LLC. dab Washington Online Weather deems reliable.  However, the weather can change quickly and unforeseeably, and there are many factors which you should consider in deciding whether to proceed with an outing, including the visible weather at the trailhead, the strength and experience of the party, snow and avalanche conditions, route conditions, etc.  You are the final decision maker whether to proceed. West Coast Weather, LLC dba Washington Online Weather cannot be held liable for loss or injury arising from your decision to proceed, and expressly disclaims all liability related thereto.    These forecasts will not be distributed to others. These forecast are used by your expedition guides while they are climbing the mountain

© 2014, West Coast Weather, LLC. All rights reserved. This report is protected by United States copyright and other intellectual property laws and may not be reproduced, rewritten, distributed, redisseminated, transmitted, published or broadcast, directly or indirectly, in any medium without the prior written permission of West Coast Weather, LLC.

 


Comments

10 thoughts on “Life At Chinese Base Camp

  1. Great update Bill…
    You look sexy in that sheer skirt…
    No wonder you are so popular, with the only accurate weather forecasts in hand!
    Enjoyed all the pix…
    Allan Smith did a fantastic job on “Eight Summits” and deserves those awards…
    Thanks for letting us know…
    All best as you continue upward…
    Kevin
    ACLA #1163

  2. Bill…you sound great and look fantastic…Tingri fat! Very hot here Huntington Beach…over 100 yesterday. Great seeing a Fagan report again and let’s hope the wind dies down soon. Loved your shower photo, you look 25 years old and still with a Costa Mesa tan. Tried to send you some more books, but UPS said they might get sprayed crossing the Freedom Bridge….he! he! Loved the up-rent tent…looks like HIMEX…can’t take it with on the climb…right!
    “One day at a time”…I hear the ringing of the bell soon!

    John
    🙂

  3. Hi Bill,

    Excellent news about your documentary winning those awards-Congratulations!

    It must be a bit difficult to continue to wait for the winds to die down to resume climbing, but you sound very cheery and in good spirits, you do have a great attitude.

    And you’re clearly healthy and well, and very fit. 🙂
    Thanks for all the entertaining news reports, and photos!

    Take care!

  4. Okay, Bill, I get it now… the moon landing was filmed on a sound stage — point taken. Mitigating images of grueling and excruciating climbing laid bare through these behind-the-scenes green room photos, probably conceived somewhere near Studio City. And the backlit, beefcake shower photo? Good one, Bill! Such a kidder!

    You can come home now.

    😉

  5. Namaste Bill, Congratulations to Alan and you on the Bill Burke video awards. EIGHT SUMMITS: THE BILL BURKE STORY has been well received in the two home screenings in San Marcos. Maybe the Seven Summits Club will make you an honorary member–if you donate a copy of the video! With everyone one the team asking, “What does Mike say about the weather?, you’re winning the “most visited tent award”. The year of awards and accolades.

    Hiking and weather blessings,

    Rockman

  6. Namaste Bill, Congratulations to Alan and you on the Bill Burke video awards. EIGHT SUMMITS: THE BILL BURKE STORY has been well received in the two home screenings in San Marcos. Maybe the Seven Summits Club will make you an honorary member–if you donate a copy of the video! With everyone on the team asking, “What does Mike say about the weather?”, you’re winning the “most visited tent award”. The year of awards and accolades–after the serious business of hiking!

    Hiking and weather blessings,

    Rockman

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