May 14, 2014
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7 Summits Recreation Dome
watching movies in the dome
Pool and ping pong in the dome
Dinner dessert
Shower in CBC
Mike Fagin’s Weather Report
Night temperatures start off at – 13 F (-25C) early in the period then go up to -6 F (-21 C) later
Short term summary Wednesday May 14 to Sunday May 18
If you look at the US Navy and UK model these keep the jet over region to very close thus summit winds 50 mph (80 km/hr.) and stronger at times. Of course we get some variation during the day of lower winds. However the GFS continues with the jet stream briefly moving out of our region to bring reasonable summit winds for May 17. The big difference between the models is GFS has the jet just far enough to our west and north thus reasonable winds by May 17 and May 18 . . Navy model has 50 to 70 mph (80 to 112 km/hr.) at 31, 680 feet (9600 meter) and these winds will at times mix down to our summit at times for winds up to 40 to 50 mph (64 to 80 km/hr.). I would lean towards these stronger winds but the Navy can be wrong at times. Given these extremes I will list GFS and Navy.
Models are not indicating much in the way of summit clouds or precipitation through May 18 . However we have seen that they have been inaccurate.
Wednesday May 14
US GFS model
Summit Winds up to 50 mph ( 80 km/hr.) west to southwest .
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) up 40 (64 km/hr.) west to southwest .
Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) up to 25 mph ( 40 km/hr.) west to southwest
Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of low confidence 2.
Wednesday May 14
US NAVY model
Summit Winds up to 60 mph ( 96 km/hr.) west to southwest .
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) up 45 (72 km/hr.) west to southwest .
Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) up to 30 mph ( 48 km/hr.) west to southwest
Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of low-medium confidence 2.5.
Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 20% chance up to 0.20 inches (5 mm).
Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low-medium confidence rating of 2.5
Few if any summit clouds
A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is equal to about 1 inch of snow
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Thursday May 15
US GFS model
Summit Winds up to 40 mph ( 64 km/hr.) west to southwest .
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) up 30 (48 km/hr.) west to southwest .
Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) up to 30 mph ( 48 km/hr.) west to southwest
Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of low confidence 2.
Thursday May 15
US NAVY model
Summit Winds up to 50 mph ( 80 km/hr.) west to southwest .
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) up 45 (72 km/hr.) west to southwest .
Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) up to 30 mph ( 48 km/hr.) west to southwest
Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of low-medium confidence 2.5.
Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 20% chance up to 0.20 inches (5 mm).
Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low-medium confidence rating of 2.5
Few if any summit clouds
A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is equal to about 1 inch of snow
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Friday May 16
US GFS model
Summit Winds up to 40 mph ( 64 km/hr.) west to northwest .
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) up 35 (56 km/hr.) west to northwest .
Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) up to 30 mph ( 48 km/hr.) west to northwest
Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of low confidence 2.
Friday May 16
US NAVY model
Summit Winds up to 50 mph ( 80 km/hr.) west to northwest . Stronger gusts at time
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) up 45 (72 km/hr.) west to northwest . Camps that are not protected from winds can have higher gusts
Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) up to 30 mph ( 48 km/hr.) west to northwest
Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of low-medium confidence 2.5.
Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 20% chance up to 0.20 inches (5 mm).
Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low-medium confidence rating of 2.5
Few if any summit clouds
A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is equal to about 1 inch of snow
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Saturday May 17
US GFS model
Summit Winds up to 20 mph ( 32 km/hr.) west to northwest .
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) up 20 (32 km/hr.) west to northwest,
Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) up to 10 mph ( 16 km/hr.) west to southwest
Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of low confidence 2.
Saturday May 17
US NAVY model
Summit Winds up to 50 mph ( 80 km/hr.) west to southwest .
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) up 40 (64 km/hr.) west to southwest . Camps that are not protected from winds can have higher gusts
Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) up to 30 mph ( 48 km/hr.) west to southwest
Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of low-medium confidence 2.5.
Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 20% chance up to 0.20 inches (5 mm).
Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low confidence rating of 2
Few if any summit clouds
A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is equal to about 1 inch of snow
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Sunday May 18
US GFS model
Summit Winds up to 30 mph ( 48 km/hr.) west to northwest .
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) up 25 (40 km/hr.) west to northwest ,
Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) up to 20 mph ( 32 km/hr.) west to northwest
Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of low confidence 2.
Sunday May 18
US NAVY model
Summit Winds up to 60 mph ( 96 km/hr.) west to northwest .
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) up 40 (64 km/hr.) west to northwest . Camps that are not protected from winds can have higher gusts
Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) up to 30 mph ( 48 km/hr.) west to northwest
Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of low-medium confidence 2.5.
Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 20% chance up to 0.20 inches (5 mm).
Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low confidence rating of 1.5
Few summit clouds
A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is equal to about 1 inch of snow
Extended Outlook Monday May 19 to Tuesday May 22
Summary: The Navy model continues with the jet real close and the GFS starts to show a minor increase in winds during this period. Models show some clouds and chance of light precipitation but not seeing a big organized system
Monday May 19
Summit Winds up to 40 mph (64 km/hr.) west to southwest GFS slightly lower
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) up 30 mph (48 km/hr.) west to southwest .
Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) up to 30 mph (48 km/hr.) west to southwest
Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of medium confidence 3
Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 40% chance up to 0.40 inches (10 mm).
Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low- medium confidence rating of 2.5
Some summit clouds as I think no precipitation for the summit
A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is equal to about 1 inch of snow
Tuesday May 20
Summit Winds up to 50 mph (80 km/hr.) west to southwest GFS slightly lower
Winds at 24,000 feet (7272 meters) up 40 mph (64 km/hr.) west to southwest .
Winds at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) up to 30 mph (48 km/hr.) west to southwest
Confidence in wind forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a rating of medium confidence 3
Precipitation in water equivalent not inches of snow (at 20,000 feet (6060 meters) 40% chance up to 0.40 inches (10 mm).
Confidence in precipitation forecast with 5 the highest confidence and 0 lowest give a low- medium confidence rating of 2.5
Some summit clouds as I think no precipitation for the summit
A basic conversion is 0.10 inches (12.5 mm) in water equivalent is equal to about 1 inch of snow
Monsoon/Bay of Bengal storms
. At this point we are not seeing any signs of the start. Also, not seeing any signs of a big storm
Best Window
The extended forecasts do show some reasonable winds in the May 26, May 27 period. Of course this is in the extended so hard to have a lot of confidence
West Coast Weather, LLC
These forecast is based on computer generated weather data generated from government agencies that West Coast Weather, LLC. dab Washington Online Weather deems reliable. However, the weather can change quickly and unforeseeably, and there are many factors which you should consider in deciding whether to proceed with an outing, including the visible weather at the trailhead, the strength and experience of the party, snow and avalanche conditions, route conditions, etc. You are the final decision maker whether to proceed. West Coast Weather, LLC dba Washington Online Weather cannot be held liable for loss or injury arising from your decision to proceed, and expressly disclaims all liability related thereto. These forecasts will not be distributed to others. These forecast are used by your expedition guides while they are climbing the mountain
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Great update Bill…
You look sexy in that sheer skirt…
No wonder you are so popular, with the only accurate weather forecasts in hand!
Enjoyed all the pix…
Allan Smith did a fantastic job on “Eight Summits” and deserves those awards…
Thanks for letting us know…
All best as you continue upward…
Kevin
ACLA #1163
I gather you can drive your pool table right up to the dome? Can’t see that on a yak.
JRH
Bill…you sound great and look fantastic…Tingri fat! Very hot here Huntington Beach…over 100 yesterday. Great seeing a Fagan report again and let’s hope the wind dies down soon. Loved your shower photo, you look 25 years old and still with a Costa Mesa tan. Tried to send you some more books, but UPS said they might get sprayed crossing the Freedom Bridge….he! he! Loved the up-rent tent…looks like HIMEX…can’t take it with on the climb…right!
“One day at a time”…I hear the ringing of the bell soon!
John
🙂
How many times have you watched the CIF video this year?
Hi Bill,
Excellent news about your documentary winning those awards-Congratulations!
It must be a bit difficult to continue to wait for the winds to die down to resume climbing, but you sound very cheery and in good spirits, you do have a great attitude.
And you’re clearly healthy and well, and very fit. 🙂
Thanks for all the entertaining news reports, and photos!
Take care!
Hi Bill.
What facilities would be available for those of us in the One Summits Club?
P.
Okay, Bill, I get it now… the moon landing was filmed on a sound stage — point taken. Mitigating images of grueling and excruciating climbing laid bare through these behind-the-scenes green room photos, probably conceived somewhere near Studio City. And the backlit, beefcake shower photo? Good one, Bill! Such a kidder!
You can come home now.
😉
Namaste Bill, Congratulations to Alan and you on the Bill Burke video awards. EIGHT SUMMITS: THE BILL BURKE STORY has been well received in the two home screenings in San Marcos. Maybe the Seven Summits Club will make you an honorary member–if you donate a copy of the video! With everyone one the team asking, “What does Mike say about the weather?, you’re winning the “most visited tent award”. The year of awards and accolades.
Hiking and weather blessings,
Rockman
Namaste Bill, Congratulations to Alan and you on the Bill Burke video awards. EIGHT SUMMITS: THE BILL BURKE STORY has been well received in the two home screenings in San Marcos. Maybe the Seven Summits Club will make you an honorary member–if you donate a copy of the video! With everyone on the team asking, “What does Mike say about the weather?”, you’re winning the “most visited tent award”. The year of awards and accolades–after the serious business of hiking!
Hiking and weather blessings,
Rockman
Love the photos Bill! A great glimpse of “downtime” on Everest. Sounding great, stay patient!